The probability of Donald Trump’s victory on the prediction market Polymarket has surpassed that of his opponent, Joe Biden, since October 5th, and has continued to rise, reaching 64.2% by October 24th. Bitcoin has been gradually rising since October 5th, but has struggled to break through the 70,000 level, causing the crypto community to lose patience. So, what kind of Trump trading is prevailing in the market?
The recent strength of the US dollar and the rise in US bond yields have been in sync. Standard Chartered Bank stated that the rise in the US dollar this month is mainly due to the increased probability of Trump winning the US presidential election predicted by the betting market. They calculated that 60% of this increase is related to the expectation of Trump’s election.
Trump advocates imposing high tariffs on imported goods, which could lead to inflation and higher interest rates. Other policy proposals, such as tax cuts and deregulation, aim to stimulate economic growth and increase corporate profitability, which will also increase the demand for the US dollar. The US dollar index has risen by 1.76% during this period, while the ten-year US bond yield has risen by 7.04%.
Gold has repeatedly reached historic highs due to geopolitical risks, the beginning of the US interest rate cycle, and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. It has risen by more than 30% so far this year, but it seems to have less direct correlation with Trump trading.
As for the crypto-friendly Trump policies, has Bitcoin jumped on this Trump trading train? Although Bitcoin has also been gradually rising since October 5th, it has struggled to break through the 70,000 level. Although institutions always predict that Trump’s election will be more favorable for the regulation of cryptocurrencies, bringing strong upward momentum to Bitcoin, the market seems to have not yet felt this optimistic atmosphere. Chain News has compiled the following Bitcoin price predictions after Trump’s election:
Standard Chartered Bank: $200,000
Bernstein: $90,000
Bitwise: $250,000 (without considering the election)
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