Bitcoin reached $73,620 last night, just a step away from this year’s three-year high of $73,777. As the U.S. presidential election approaches, Bitfinex analysts have indicated that election-driven momentum, strong technical indicators, and an increase in derivative positions suggest an improving price outlook for Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is expected to continue rising in the fourth quarter
Bitfinex analysts noted that improvements in technical indicators, new capital inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs, and broader macro factors—including speculation about a Trump election victory and the seasonal strength of the market in the fourth quarter—are all supporting the upward momentum of Bitcoin. The narrative of “Trump trades” and the seasonal rise in the fourth quarter have created a perfect storm for Bitcoin. Although prices may fluctuate before the election, an exciting period lies ahead.
Options market indicates Bitcoin could reach $80,000 by year-end
The options market is also reflecting a positive outlook for Bitcoin. Analysts have pointed out that call options with a price of $80,000 for December 27 are becoming increasingly popular, indicating confidence in a rebound post-election, with Bitcoin potentially reaching over $80,000 by year-end. However, current implied volatility is high, suggesting that prices may fluctuate around the election date. Analysts added that the premium on options expiring in the week of the U.S. election has increased, with implied volatility expected to peak shortly after November 5, signaling potential short-term turbulence. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes recently released “Fuel for Bitcoin,” discussing that China’s QE will take time, but the future for Bitcoin is very optimistic. The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress of China will meet from November 4 to November 8, and is expected to approve more details on fiscal support.
Continued net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a net inflow of $480 million on Monday, marking the highest single-day inflow in two weeks. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest Bitcoin spot ETF by net assets, has recorded continuous net inflows for 11 days. Overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs have only experienced one day of net outflow since October 11.
