Bitcoin returned to the $70,000 mark last night, with analysts estimating that as the November 5 U.S. election approaches, the price of Bitcoin may rise; however, a sell-off pressure may follow.
(Bitcoin Rebounds to $70,000 Amid Trump Trades)
Bitcoin Set to Surge Before the Election
According to The Block, multiple analysts believe that Bitcoin’s price could surge before the November 5 U.S. election, but they warn that regardless of who wins, a sell-off may occur in the days following the announcement of the results. Edouard Hindi, Chief Investment Officer at Tyr Capital, believes that profit-taking sell pressure could impact Bitcoin’s price in the days following the election results; however, dip buyers are expected to maintain support above $60,000. Regardless of the election outcome, Bitcoin may regain momentum in the medium term and aim to set new highs in 2024. Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, also emphasized that as the U.S. prepares for voting next Tuesday, Bitcoin’s price is expected to rise significantly in the coming week. He believes several factors support the potential rise of Bitcoin, particularly the Federal Reserve’s expected interest rate cuts. The market widely anticipates that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on November 7, lowering the interest rate to a range of 4.5% to 4.75% to stabilize economic growth.
Potential Sell Pressure on Bitcoin
Lee also highlighted that upcoming events may influence market dynamics after the U.S. election. For instance, Microsoft’s board is set to vote on investing in Bitcoin, with a “Bitcoin Investment Assessment” to be voted on at the annual shareholder meeting scheduled for December 10. (Microsoft’s Stock Surge Lags Behind MicroStrategy; Shareholders Urge Microsoft to Include Bitcoin in Diversified Investments) If the board votes against investing in Bitcoin, it could dampen market enthusiasm and hinder Bitcoin’s growth; conversely, if Microsoft decides to invest, it could trigger a substantial market increase. Lee predicts, with a 70% confidence interval, that Bitcoin’s trading price next week may range from $66,000 to $75,000, while Ethereum’s trading price may range from $2,350 to $3,200. He also noted that improved liquidity could lead to increased activity in altcoins. He mentioned that Trump’s recent interview on The Joe Rogan Experience has garnered over 32 million views, raising his Polymarket odds to above 66%. However, analysts at QCP Capital stated that while cryptocurrencies are related to “Trump trades,” the correlation between Bitcoin and Trump’s odds seems to be weakening. (Trump Calls China a “War Machine,” Taiwan Takes 95% of Chip Business: “Pay the United States Protection Fees”)