CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated, “The altcoin season has begun.” (Alt Season refers to the period when smaller cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin gain traction.) However, this market shift is different from the past; how should investors interpret it?
Ki Young Ju: This altcoin season is different from the past!
Bitcoin’s market dominance is no longer a determining factor.
He noted that traditionally, the onset of altcoin season has been closely related to a decline in Bitcoin (BTC) market dominance. However, Ki Young Ju emphasized that Bitcoin’s market share is no longer the key determinant of altcoin season; the real key indicator is trading volume. According to his observations:
– Altcoin trading volume has reached 2.7 times that of Bitcoin, indicating a substantial influx of market capital into altcoins.
– Stablecoin holders are directly shifting to altcoins rather than rotating funds through Bitcoin, which is different from historical trends.
– This is a “selective” altcoin season, where only those altcoins with strong application scenarios and market narratives will succeed.
– Investors should conduct their own research (DYOR, Do Your Own Research) to avoid following the crowd blindly.
These viewpoints indicate that the flow of market capital is undergoing significant changes, and investors need to reassess their trading strategies.
Market status: Is data supporting the surge in altcoin trading volume?
Latest market data (February 21, 2025)
According to CoinGecko, the current key market data is as follows:
| Indicator | Value |
|——————————-|—————-|
| Total cryptocurrency market cap | $3.359 trillion |
| Bitcoin market cap | $1.949 trillion (58% market share) |
| Altcoin market cap | $1.410 trillion |
| 24-hour total trading volume | $95.92 billion |
| Bitcoin trading volume | $30.9 billion |
| Estimated altcoin trading volume | $65.02 billion (approximately 2.1 times BTC) |
It is noteworthy that while the altcoin trading volume does exceed that of Bitcoin, the data indicates a ratio of 2.1 times, rather than the 2.7 times mentioned by Ki Young Ju. This discrepancy may be influenced by different data sources from exchanges, calculation methods, or specific time frames.
Stablecoins become a source of funds, disrupting market patterns.
Traditional capital rotation patterns have been broken.
In the past, altcoin seasons were typically driven by the flow of funds from Bitcoin into altcoins, meaning that investors would first exchange BTC for altcoins. However, this time the market shows a markedly different trend:
– Funds from stablecoins (such as USDT and USDC) are directly flowing into altcoins, rather than rotating through Bitcoin.
This indicates that the altcoin market has gained a new source of funding independent of BTC, no longer relying on a decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance to spur growth. Currently, the total market cap of the stablecoin market is approximately $233 billion (according to CoinGecko), which provides strong liquidity to the market and allows investors to trade more flexibly.
This aligns with the views discussed in the market in January 2025, when Ki Young Ju mentioned, “The altcoin market is a zero-sum PvP game, with overall liquidity being limited.” This means that not all altcoins will benefit from this influx of capital; only specific projects are likely to perform well.
Risk Warning
Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, and prices can be highly volatile; you may lose all your principal. Please assess the risks carefully.