Metaplanet, the Japanese Version of MicroStrategy, Experiences Significant Stock Price Fluctuations
Recently, the stock price of Metaplanet has shown significant volatility. After transforming into a Bitcoin reserve strategy company, it has successfully attracted investors’ attention, with its stock price soaring nearly sevenfold within a year. This article will introduce Metaplanet’s business model and provide several ways for readers to evaluate its stock price.
From Hospitality to Bitcoin Reserve Strategy Company
Metaplanet (3350.T) originated from the Hotel Royal Oak, founded in 1999, and was listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange (TSE) in 2004. Among its many ventures, it also includes a Web3 consulting business. However, the company has not performed well financially in recent years, with its stock price being quite sluggish.
In April 2024, Metaplanet announced that it would follow MicroStrategy’s strategy by launching a Bitcoin investment strategy, employing various financial instruments to support this goal, including issuing bonds and stocks. It has currently purchased 7,800 Bitcoins, making it the publicly listed company with the most Bitcoins in Asia. This strategy has garnered significant attention in the Japanese market and has been included in several global and local ETFs.
Metaplanet is renovating its hotels and will rename them “Bitcoin Hotels.” The hotels will feature a Bitcoin gallery, an art museum, and coworking spaces, specifically designed to provide a conducive communication environment for the crypto community.
(Strategy Leading the Trend: A Detailed Guide to Investing in Bitcoin Reserve Strategy Companies)
Metaplanet’s Bitcoin Strategy: Continuous Purchases + Options Income
Metaplanet has showcased a long-term Bitcoin strategy similar to that of MicroStrategy through a series of stock issuances, bond offerings, and Bitcoin purchasing plans.
In addition to directly buying Bitcoin, Metaplanet engages in Bitcoin options trading with Singapore-based digital asset trading company QCP Capital, collecting premiums by selling options. It occasionally conducts roll-up transactions to increase the exercise price and enhance Bitcoin premium income. Metaplanet refers to this as “targeted buying,” emphasizing it as another avenue for acquiring Bitcoin.
In its latest financial report, revenue for the first quarter of 2025 reached 877 million yen, with 88% coming from Bitcoin options trading.
(Metaplanet Increases Bitcoin Earnings Through Options Roll-Up Trading)
How to Evaluate Metaplanet’s Stock Price?
Following its adoption of a Bitcoin investment strategy, Metaplanet’s stock price has surged. How should investors assess its stock price? The author provides the following three evaluation metrics:
P/B Ratio
Traditional finance uses the Price-Book Ratio (P/B ratio) to assess the valuation of a company’s stock. The P/B ratio is the ratio of the stock price to the book value per share, with the book value representing the actual or liquidation value of the company. If we do not consider other assets of the company and use only the Bitcoin value to represent its liquidation value, we can derive a P/B ratio.
P/B ratio = Stock Price / Value of Bitcoin per Share
Using the closing price of 816 yen on Friday, an exchange rate of 142.6 yen to the dollar, and a Bitcoin price of 108K, the P/B ratio calculates to 5.09.
mNAV
Another calculation method, mNAV, carries a similar meaning, as seen on MicroStrategy’s official website.
mNAV = Enterprise Value ÷ Bitcoin NAV
Enterprise Value: Market Capitalization + Total Liabilities (including convertible debt and preferred stocks)
Bitcoin NAV: The market value of Bitcoin held
NAV Premium
The website Strategy Tracker, which specifically analyzes Bitcoin reserve strategy companies, also provides various data and indicators, including a metric similar to mNAV called NAV Premium, though the calculation differs slightly.
NAV Premium = Market Cap (stock market value) ÷ Bitcoin NAV (value of held Bitcoins)
NAV Premium does not account for convertible debt and preferred stocks but is divided into NAV Premium (Basic) and NAV Premium (Diluted), with one calculated using the current number of shares outstanding and the other factoring in future convertible shares. The author believes it is necessary to look at NAV Premium (Diluted) to understand the dilution of one’s equity. Unfortunately, the historical data provided in their statistics is based on NAV Premium (Basic), with the current indicator being 4.055, while NAV Premium (Diluted) is currently at 5.125.
These indicators are similar to the traditional P/B ratio, where higher numbers indicate that the company’s stock price is relatively expensive.
Is Metaplanet’s Current Stock Price Overvalued?
Since launching its Bitcoin investment strategy in April 2024, Metaplanet has employed various financial instruments to support this goal, planning to accumulate a total of 10,000 Bitcoins by the end of this year and 21,000 Bitcoins by 2026.
Metaplanet has established a clear financial plan, including future stock purchase rights, totaling five batches of 21 million shares. Benefiting from Japan’s tax system and the ease of purchase for retail and institutional investors, its NAV premium has remained high. As seen in the chart, its NAV premium once reached as high as 21 times, with a minimum level close to 2 times.
So how should one determine if Metaplanet’s stock price is overvalued? Currently, there are nearly a hundred Bitcoin reserve strategy companies in the market, and aside from the original MicroStrategy, the author believes that Metaplanet is the most stable and promising for long-term investment! It has established a clear financial plan and is actively progressing toward its goals, allowing investors to analyze its stock price numerically for entry and exit decisions.
The P/B ratio used by the author is actually similar to NAV Premium, so the author cross-references their calculated figures with historical NAV Premium data to identify relative highs and lows for investment.
Using the closing price of 816 yen on Friday, the exchange rate of 142.6 yen to the dollar, and a Bitcoin price of 108K, the current P/B ratio is 5.09. If 10,000 Bitcoins are bought by the end of the year, under the scenario of equity dilution (with 21 million shares issued this year), the stock price should reach 1,003 yen at the same P/B ratio (as indicated by the light orange in the chart).
Under the current circumstances, if the P/B ratio drops to 4, the stock price should fall to 640. If investor sentiment becomes more optimistic by the end of the year, under the same conditions, the stock price could reach 1,180 (P/B ratio of 6) and 1,380 (P/B ratio of 7). This method allows for adjustments and evaluations of entry and exit points at any time.
Both MicroStrategy and Metaplanet, seen as Bitcoin proxies, are regarded as leveraged investment tools for Bitcoin. Naturally, when Bitcoin rises, the P/B ratio tends to increase; conversely, when Bitcoin falls, the P/B ratio will also decline. Therefore, investment strategies should be adjusted in tandem with Bitcoin’s trends.
Metaplanet Becomes a New Arbitrage Target
Metaplanet’s stock price has recently exhibited significant fluctuations, ranking first in volatility and also being the most shorted company. Listed in both Japan and the United States, Metaplanet has become a new target for arbitrageurs, offering a new option for arbitrage similar to MicroStrategy, allowing for both Bitcoin and stock price arbitrage, as well as leveraging its multiple listings.
(Metaplanet Becomes a New Arbitrage Target: What Happened with Two Consecutive Limit-Up Days?)
Clearly, Metaplanet has not only become the publicly listed company with the most Bitcoins in Asia but has also gained significant attention in the financial market. Whether such a highly volatile stock is suitable for investment depends on each individual’s risk profile. This article represents the author’s personal insights and does not constitute investment advice. Please be sure to DYOR.
Risk Warning
Investing in cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, and prices can be highly volatile. You may lose your entire principal. Please carefully assess the risks.