New Chapter for Crypto ETFs: Solana May Become the First Public Blockchain to Obtain a Spot ETF Following Ethereum
Multiple Bloomberg analysts have pointed out that this summer may witness a new wave of “altcoin ETF frenzy.” However, this time, the attitude of capital will be more cautious and rational, and whether it can truly attract hot money remains an unknown.
From Bitcoin to Solana: Spot ETFs Accelerate the Unlocking of New Targets
Following the approval of spot ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is currently facing a new round of review applications for spot crypto ETFs, including various altcoins such as Solana (SOL), Ripple (XRP), Litecoin (LTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Polkadot (DOT).
According to Bloomberg Intelligence’s tracking, nearly all 19b-4 form applications have been confirmed by the SEC, setting final review deadlines, with the earliest decisions expected to be revealed in the second half of 2025.
Among them, Solana leads the altcoin sector with a 90% high approval probability, with as many as seven institutions, including Grayscale, VanEck, and 21Shares, submitting applications, highlighting its market appeal and quasi-institutional positioning. Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas further stated:
“Get ready for the possible incoming ‘altcoin ETF summer’! Solana and some ‘basket product’ crypto asset products are likely to take the lead.”
Not All Coins Will Make It: The SEC’s Attitude and CFTC Regulation Are Key Determinants
Bloomberg data indicates that “whether it is viewed as a commodity by the SEC” is central to determining the success or failure of an ETF. Bitcoin and Ethereum are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) due to their futures markets, allowing for a relatively smooth approval of spot ETFs. Solana, XRP, LTC, and others may also be seen as “commodities,” giving them a better chance of approval.
In contrast, while SUI and TRON have applied, they not only lack futures products regulated by the CFTC, but it is also still uncertain whether the SEC will view them as commodities, resulting in their approval probabilities being only 60% and even unassessed, with review deadlines extending to 2026.
Will Hot Money Return? Funding Challenges for Solana ETFs
However, Balchunas candidly responded to community inquiries, stating: “Even if the chances of passing the review are high, it does not mean that capital will flood in.”
“Nothing compares to Bitcoin. Our team has a saying: ‘The further away from Bitcoin, the less asset inflow there is.’” In fact, even after months of approval for the Ethereum spot ETF, net capital inflow has still fallen short of expectations, reflecting a reservation in the market regarding the ETF popularity of non-Bitcoin assets. Although Solana possesses topicality and high-performance characteristics, whether this ETF can drive actual capital flow in the absence of institutional consensus and macro-positive factors remains to be seen.
The Real Significance and Potential of Altcoin ETF Approval
Although capital may not explode in the short term, the true significance of this batch of altcoin spot ETFs may lie in the long-term change in asset allocation structures. If Solana successfully launches its ETF, it would not only symbolize official endorsement of its commodity properties but also provide a potential reason for institutional funds (such as pension or sovereign funds) to include it in their allocations.
Additionally, ETF structures that include staking products may also emerge. Currently, the SEC is paying attention to some institutions attempting to launch ETFs with staking features, which, if successful, would further expand the financial applications of altcoins.
Solana Takes the Lead, Altcoin ETFs Test the Waters
From the current wave of applications, the U.S. crypto ETF market is gradually transitioning from single assets to diversified indices and alternative assets. Solana is not only seizing the initiative in the approval of spot ETFs but is also injecting policy and regulatory expectations into the overall altcoin market.
However, ETF approval does not equate to a return of a bull market. The real key moving forward still lies in whether the market is willing to buy in, whether there are macro dynamics, and whether regulators are open to groundbreaking innovations like staking.
“The ‘altcoin ETF summer’ may not create milestone topics like Bitcoin, but it may be enough to give a somewhat stagnant market a bit of hope.”
Risk Warning
Investing in cryptocurrencies involves high risks, and their prices can be highly volatile, leading to potential total loss of principal. Please assess risks carefully.