Ethereum’s Recent Surge: ETH/BTC Rate Doubles
Ethereum has recently surged rapidly, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate doubling. Bitcoin maximalist and JAN3 CEO Samson Mow believes that the rise of ETH is merely a short-term maneuver by early holders to exchange for more BTC, ultimately leading to the sale of ETH and a return to Bitcoin. He candidly stated, “In the long term, no one wants ETH,” warning investors to be cautious of getting trapped.
Mow’s Analysis
ETH’s Rise: Ultimately to Exchange for More BTC
Samson Mow pointed out yesterday that most early ETH holders, including ICO participants and insiders, originally held large amounts of BTC and are now converting that BTC into ETH to pump up the price through new narratives such as the “Ethereum Treasury companies.”
Let me explain what’s happening with ETHBTC. Most ETH holders have a lot of BTC (ICO/insiders) and they are rotating that BTC into ETH to pump it on new narratives (Ethereum Treasury co’s). Once they’ve gotten it high enough, they’ll dump their ETH, creating new generational… — Samson Mow (@Excellion) August 10, 2025
Once the price reaches an ideal range, they will sell ETH, making the new purchasers the next generation of “bagholders,” then transferring the profits back to BTC. He bluntly stated, “In the long term, no one wants ETH.” In his view, this market movement does not seem to be a re-evaluation of ETH’s long-term value, but rather a rotation of funds aimed at BTC.
Why is ETH Struggling to Reach New Highs? The Bagholder’s Dilemma is Key
Mow further noted that even if ETH strengthens, breaking through historical highs (ATH) remains extremely challenging. As the price approaches ATH, the selling impulse of holders intensifies, creating what he terms the “Bagholder’s Dilemma.” Similar to the prisoner’s dilemma, the choices are limited to “sell for profit” or “continue holding,” with no option to “add more.” Furthermore, he is not concerned about the short-term breakout of the ETH/BTC exchange rate above the long-term downtrend line, believing it to be a mere repetition of history: Ethereum has always been a tool for those to acquire more Bitcoin. This was true during the ICO era, and it remains so today.
ETH/BTC Rate Doubles, BTC Market Share Continues to Decline
Data from TradingView shows that the ETH/BTC ratio has doubled from a low of 0.018 in April to 0.036. During this period, the price of ETH surged to $4,300, while Bitcoin’s price remained relatively flat, leading to a decline in Bitcoin’s market share (BTC.D) of approximately 6% since the end of June.
According to prominent trader Eugene’s predictions last month regarding ETH/BTC, the rate has now significantly surpassed its mid-term target of 0.03, with future expectations looking towards 0.04 or higher.
Bullish Signal: Joseph Lubin Claims ETH Will Surpass BTC Market Value Within a Year
In contrast to Mow’s pessimistic view, Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin recently stated in an interview with CNBC that he believes ETH could surpass BTC in market value within a year, especially with the trend surrounding Ethereum Treasury companies.
Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin hinted on CNBC that he believes $ETH could flip $BTC within “the next year or so, especially with these treasury companies driving things.” At bitcoin’s current market cap, ETH would need to be around $20,000 to flip it. pic.twitter.com/o3730nEmCY — Satoshi Stacker (@StackerSatoshi) August 10, 2025
At the current market cap of BTC, the price of ETH would need to reach approximately $20,000 to achieve this goal, which is still somewhat distant from the $15,000 target articulated by major Ethereum bull and BitMine Chairman Tom Lee. Investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows also predicted on Sunday that ETH will reach new highs, potentially sparking a small altcoin season, after which funds will rotate back to Bitcoin until it reaches around $140,000, and finally rotate back to ETH and other altcoins. This pattern of fund rotation has been observed in previous cycles.
Risk Warning
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