BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes previously warned everyone to closely monitor the USD/JPY trend. If the Japanese Yen depreciates wildly to the 200 level, it will trigger a gamble between China, the US, and Japan, ultimately leading to significant devaluation of printing money and fiat currencies, with Bitcoin potentially reaching $1 million.
Japan and various countries’ interest rate differentials are beginning to narrow. With the USD depreciating, go long on Bitcoin, then shitcoins! At that time, Hayes pointed out that if the interest rate differential between the US and Japan persists, investors will continue to sell the Japanese Yen, causing it to continuously depreciate. This will harm China’s export competitiveness, forcing the Renminbi to devalue as well. However, the Biden administration may not be able to tolerate Renminbi devaluation before the election, as this would lead to a continuous loss of job opportunities in the US and result in him losing the election.
However, the situation has changed now! In addition to China having already reduced reserve requirements at the beginning of the year to provide market liquidity, Arthur Hayes has also compiled a chart of policy interest rates of various central banks, including:
– Central Bank of Canada (purple line) and European Central Bank ECB (yellow line) have started interest rate cuts
– Expected to cut interest rates later: US (white line) and Bank of England (red line)
– Bank of Japan (green line) remains at a low of 0.1%
Hayes believes that if the market believes that the interest rate differential between the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar, Euro, Pound, and other currencies will narrow over time, they will buy Yen and sell everything else! Faced with the devaluation of global fiat currencies, Bitcoin will be the best performing asset. With the People’s Bank of China, the Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank all cutting interest rates, the fireworks of June central banks have been set off, which will allow cryptocurrencies to break free from the summer slump in the Northern Hemisphere. Although this was not Hayes’ original expected scenario (he originally expected it to start in August), the trend is very clear.
Central banks are beginning a loose cycle. Go long on Bitcoin, then shitcoins!
Arthur Hayes
Bitcoin