Polymarket’s Mysterious Whale Trader is a French Trader
Polymarket has attracted attention due to users betting millions of dollars on election markets, leading to concerns about market manipulation and the platform’s use by US users. However, Polymarket has stated to multiple media outlets including Bloomberg, CNBC, and Forbes that they have completed an investigation and found that the user in question, Fredi9999, is a French trader and did not have any intention to manipulate the market.
Fredi9999’s large capital and use of multiple accounts have raised suspicions that he intended to manipulate the betting market. However, a Polymarket spokesperson emphasized that the third-party investigation found no evidence of market manipulation by the user. They understand that the user took a specific position based on personal views of the election and has extensive trading experience and financial services background. The user has also agreed not to open new accounts on the platform in the future.
Polymarket’s Rise to Prominence
Polymarket has gained significant attention this year, with a total trading volume reaching $2.4 billion. Other prediction market products, such as Backpack, Decrypt, Drift, Wintermute, and dYdX, have also been launched. The betting markets related to the US presidential election have attracted a lot of attention and raised potential regulatory issues.
After reaching a settlement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022, Polymarket was prohibited from providing services to US users. The CFTC continues to monitor whether its international users comply with platform rules. This differs from the policies of competitors Kalshi and PredictIt, with the latter allowing US users to participate but setting a limit of $850 per bet for each user.
Controversy over the Accuracy of Prediction Markets
The analysis methods of election betting markets differ from traditional opinion polls, leading to controversies over their accuracy. Despite claims by some supporters like Elon Musk that betting markets are more accurate than polls, the Trump win probabilities in different markets do vary slightly:
– Polymarket: 61.6%
– Kalshi: 59%
– PredictIt: 57%
– RealClearPolitics Polls: 49.3%
– FiveThirtyEight: 51%
In addition, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by 46% to 43%. Polymarket emphasizes that its platform reflects the probability of events occurring, rather than the voter preferences measured by polls.