JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon Discusses US-China Trade, Supply Chain Restructuring, AI Investment Bubble, and American Economic Sentiment
On April 16, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan, shared his insights on US-China trade, supply chain restructuring, the AI investment bubble, and the sentiment of the American economy and international alliances. He emphasized that the United States cannot act alone and should replace tariff battles with mature dialogue. He also mentioned that American businesses and the government should adopt a pragmatic, long-term perspective toward future development rather than getting bogged down in short-term interests.
US and China Need to Sit Down and Talk, Starting with Each Other’s Family Welfare
Dimon stressed the need for mature dialogue between the US and China, eschewing low-level tactics such as “tit-for-tat sanctions.” Instead, he suggested that negotiators should first inquire about each other’s families’ well-being. He candidly stated:
- While he does not agree with the Chinese political system, he acknowledges that it has indeed accomplished many things that benefit its people economically.
- He suggested that China should engage in self-reflection, while the US should negotiate with allies rather than acting alone.
The US Cannot Go It Alone; Maintaining Global Influence Relies on Western Allies
Dimon cautioned that although the US has played a leadership role in the past, it should not revert to isolationism due to internal pressures. He pointed out:
- While there are valid complaints about Europe’s economic weaknesses and unfair trade practices in the US, “strengthening alliances is more important than division.”
- He also warned that if Western countries act independently, it could lead to a repeat of the pre-World War I and World War II world order, increasing the risk of nuclear proliferation.
Tariffs and Supply Chain Issues Are More Significant Than Hedge Fund De-leveraging
Dimon stated that while short-term market volatility has been influenced by hedge funds reducing their positions, the real risk lies in the “uncertainty of the tariff war” and companies’ inability to plan their supply chains. He likened the situation to being unable to predict everything using today’s economic weather forecast, urging companies to prepare for various scenarios as uncertainty has become the norm.
Investment Confidence is Weak, Consumer Spending Holds Up, but Pressure is Rising
Dimon reported that the current credit loss rate for American consumers has returned to “normal levels,” but there is still pressure. Although the unemployment rate has not yet risen, he noted:
- Business owners are starting to pull back.
- Mergers and acquisitions, as well as investments in medium-sized enterprises, have also stagnated.
He candidly mentioned that many companies will begin to report the actual impacts of tariffs on their performance within three to four months.
Dimon Calls for No Labels; We Are All in This Together
Dimon believes that the economy of the people is more important than Wall Street, but he also reminds that Wall Street’s funds come from the retirement savings and union funds of the citizens. He illustrated that when a large company opens a factory, it can drive at least 20 times more jobs and investments in small and medium-sized enterprises, highlighting the interconnectedness of the economy.
The AI Investment Boom May Become a Bubble; Dimon Acknowledges It Could but Also Might Not
Dimon admitted that there will certainly be bubbles in the current wave of AI investments, but there are also technologies that will genuinely change the world. He shared that JP Morgan has already enhanced its risk control and anti-fraud systems using AI, and a single AI risk model can save the company hundreds of millions of dollars in losses annually. Regarding the misconception that the largest models are necessary for large language models (LLMs), he reminded that “smaller models can achieve 90% of the effect at a lower cost.”
Dimon Reveals Succession Criteria and Future Aspirations
Dimon indicated that a succession plan is currently in place. He believes the future leader should possess four qualities: “mindset, curiosity, resilience, and execution ability.” He even disclosed that he might enter the media industry in the future: “I have an idea that could help the media do better, but I won’t share it right now.”
Maintain Resilience, Pragmatism, and Flexibility in Facing the Future
From US-China dialogue, global alliances, economic confidence to AI applications, Dimon consistently upholds a pragmatic and flexible approach. For him, both businesses and nations cannot pretend that the environment will always be sunny; they must be able to find direction in a storm, adjusting their sails rather than complaining about the wind direction.
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