The Block Research’s Analysts: 2024 Predictions
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The Block Research Consensus Predictions
George Calle
Steven Zheng
Eden Au
Brandon Kae
Abraham Eid
Carlos Guzman
Jaiden Percheson
Simon Cousaert
Arnold Toh
Marcel Bluhm
Mohamed Ayadi
Rebecca Stevens
Jae Oh Song
Edvin Memet
Florence Kuria
Atharv Deshpande
Kevin Peng
Lars Hoffmann
Edvinas Rupkus
Ian Devendorf
Afif Bandak
Shamel Tejani
Brad Kay
John Dantoni
The Block Research Consensus Predictions
Since the analysts have the following common predictions, the following items will be removed from the individual predictions in this article:
Bitcoin spot ETF will be approved in the first quarter of 2024.
Coinbase will perform strongly, benefiting institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.
There is a general expectation for an increase in cryptocurrency prices in 2024 driven by the risk environment.
Bullish narratives: Real World Assets (RWA), decentralized infrastructure, and AI.
Upgrades such as proto-danksharding/EIP-4844 will increase the adoption of Layer-2 based on Ethereum Rollup.
George Calle
The total market capitalization and major markets (BTC, ETH, and SOL) will appreciate in the risk environment of 2024, outperforming stocks and the technology industry overall.
Investors will shift towards competitive coins with more upside potential, and Bitcoin’s dominance will start to fluctuate.
Integration of AI will benefit the development of the DePIN space.
COIN will continue to be the strongest crypto stock; Circle may IPO, but its performance will be relatively lackluster.
Steven Zheng
Solana’s and Sei Network’s recovery, along with the launch of the parallel EVM chain Monad, are expected to have two parallel Layer-1 chains in the top ten by market capitalization.
Coinbase’s market capitalization will reach $5 trillion.
Ethereum ETF will not be approved.
Decentralized computing power becomes a new narrative due to AI hype.
Two memecoins will enter the top ten by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins and wrapped assets.
NFT will experience a revival due to airdrops from a few projects.
Ordinals will account for 25% of Bitcoin miners’ revenue in 2024.
Eden Au
From a price perspective, Bitcoin spot ETF is a “sell the news” event.
ETH’s future performance will outperform BTC; COIN’s performance will outperform BTC.
Celestia (TIA) will stand out due to extreme community enthusiasm.
Not optimistic about the short-term impact of the Dencun upgrade on L2; Arbitrum One and OP will still be mainstream L2 solutions.
Re-staking protocols will attract a significant amount of ETH liquidity.
The prediction market will recover due to the presidential election.
Derivative DEXs will be the most progressive exchanges due to improved user experience and market recovery.
Illuvium will usher in the “GameFi Season.”
Brandon Kae
At least one AI project will enter the top ten by market capitalization by the end of the year.
ETH/BTC will rise but there won’t be a golden cross.
Telegram trading bots will further enhance user experience and remain popular despite risks.
There will be at least one NFT project surpassing BAYC’s market capitalization and launching native tokens.
Abraham Eid
Security tokenization will become a focus, and crypto-native infrastructure will receive significant funding from traditional finance.
The biggest innovation in DeFi will still be in the integration with RWA.
DePIN projects such as computing power and bandwidth will emerge, which will be more competitive than traditional players.
Projects integrating AI and cryptography will receive significant funding, but the technology is still immature.
Carlos Guzman
Bitcoin spot ETF is more like a “sell the news” event.
Weak economic conditions in the first half of the year will eventually lead the Federal Reserve to issue a rate cut signal, causing cryptocurrencies to rebound in the second half.
Solana’s hype will fade, with BTC dominance in the first half, and BTC market share will drop sharply after the halving.
Aptos, Sui, Sei, Solana, Monad, and NEAR will become the focus as competing Layer-1 chains.
Privacy-supporting smart contract platforms such as Aztec, Aleo, and Mina will be major topics throughout the year.
USDT and USDC will face increasing competition in stablecoin yields and lose market share; TRON will also lose its lead in low-cost transfers, thereby affecting USDT.
2024 will be a year of major hacking attacks, and significant cybersecurity incidents will occur in mainstream Layer-2 solutions.
Jaiden Percheson
Another sovereign nation will adopt Bitcoin as legal tender.
The combination of AI and blockchain will be one of the most hyped topics in 2024.
ETH/BTC will not reach new highs, but ETH will experience significant gains due to upgrade expectations and ETF approvals.
Simon Cousaert
Zero-knowledge proof (ZKP) technology will be widely adopted by many projects, bringing more privacy transactions.
Re-staking models will experience another DeFi boom.
Arnold Toh
Cosmos adoption will be on par with major L1 chains like Ethereum and Solana.
L2 will continue to grow, with some starting to merge or fade away.
Ethereum’s lack of new DeFi narratives will make re-staking the main narrative, and EigenLayer will be at the center of the narrative.
Play-to-earn will no longer be practical, and players will focus on trading in-game NFTs.
Marcel Bluhm
Solana’s market capitalization will move back to the top three, further challenging Ethereum’s position.
By the end of the year, the market capitalization will be lower than at the beginning of the year.
The first blockchain game to attract traditional gamers will emerge.
The U.S. president will dismiss Gary Gensler.
Mohamed Ayadi
L2 chains will see a significant increase, with only a few L2 chains matching the on-chain activity levels of L1.
RWA and related protocols will continue to grow, but the pace will be slow due to regulatory factors.
Polkadot, Cosmos, and other Layer-0 projects will continue to develop, but their attention will be lower compared to new stars like modular blockchains.
Solana will be on par with BTC and ETH as a mainstream and secure asset.
Rebecca Stevens
More types of traditional financial elements will enter the blockchain, and tokenization of real-world assets will gain more adoption.
L1 and L2 will start to erode Ethereum’s market share.
A large number of avatar-style NFTs will not see a revival, but game-related NFTs will be more popular than art-related ones.
Jae Oh Song
Bitcoin ETF may be a “sell the news” event, but the decline will not last long.
NFT games and infrastructure may be more attractive for funding as they are more practical.
Solana will become the mainstream L1 narrative, and competing chains will start to pursue interoperability with Solana.
Ethereum spot ETF will also drive the prices of Polygon, Arbitrum, and OP.
Edvin Memet
Projects may shift from airdrops to liquidity mining, especially when more accurate witch detection is developed.
The market capitalization of memecoins will increase from the current $25 billion to over $75 billion.
ETH may outperform BTC, and L2 may not outperform ETH.
A new narrative “Solana killer” will emerge, and Sei and NEAR will be the main candidates.
New competitors will enter the Telegram trading bot space.
NFT projects closer to the mainstream, such as Pudgy Penguins, will thrive.
Florence Kuria
Meme coins like SHIB will thrive under community promotion, developing their own blockchains.
Old-school meme coins like DOGE will lose market share, and investors will focus more on emerging meme coins like BONK.
Atharv Deshpande
Cryptocurrencies will outperform the stock market, except for COIN.
ETH will not surpass BTC, and SOL will not surpass ETH.
The launch of a Bitcoin spot ETF will bring calmness to the market.
By the end of 2024, the market capitalization of meme coins will exceed $50 billion. Following BONK, another unicorn meme coin will emerge.
L1 chains will continue to dominate, but the market capitalization of L2 and meme coins will continue to grow, demonstrating diversity and ongoing development in the crypto space.
Kevin Peng
Solana will continue to recover and become the third-largest blockchain by market capitalization.
AI will be a strong narrative, giving rise to numerous new protocols.
The cryptocurrency gaming industry will continue to mature, laying the foundation for future growth.
Lars Hoffmann
The focus will shift to Ethereum ETF in the first half of the year.
After May, the focus will return to Bitcoin, Bitcoin meme coins, and the DeFi ecosystem.
The FTX lawsuit will drag on for a long time.
Hong Kong will become more open in crypto policies to compensate for the fiscal losses in recent years.
New users will embrace Solana and competing chains instead of Ethereum.
Modular blockchains cannot bring meaningful economic activity to Ethereum.
Edvinas Rupkus
The price trends and overall on-chain activities in 2024 will be similar to 2021.
If the theme of 2021 was Layer-1 and “Ethereum killers,” the theme of 2024 will be L2 and modular blockchain solutions.
Crazy interactions between users and major chains will lead to significant cybersecurity incidents in cross-chain bridges.
More countries will follow El Salvador in adopting Bitcoin.
Expectations are high for the DePIN space and applications like Helium, which will drive adoption.
Ian Devendorf
BTC dominance will reach around 70% in the first half of the year.
Competitive coins will outperform L2 and mainstream chains (Solana, Near, Aptos, Sui, etc.), and BTC market share will plummet in the second half.
Lending protocols and stablecoins will benefit from a high-interest rate environment and continued integration of real-world assets.
The stablecoin business model will remain popular, with more companies launching stablecoins, but they will struggle to disrupt USDT’s market dominance.
Afif Bandak
Parallel EVM chains will be one of the major narratives in 2024.
Liquidity staking and collateralization will still be the mainstream DeFi narratives.
Shamel Tejani
Airdrops will be the biggest FOMO in 2024, not ETFs or sudden coin pumps.
With the progress of Ethereum ETF and the Dencun upgrade, the focus will return to Ethereum.
DEX trading volumes will increase relative to CEX.
Bitcoin will experience a 25% drop at some point in the first half of 2024.
Brad Kay
Ethereum will remain the leading chain for NFTs, followed closely by Bitcoin and Solana.
The development of BRC20 exchanges will completely change the Bitcoin ecosystem, similar to Blur’s impact on NFTs.
John Dantoni
Venture capital funding will skyrocket.
Bitcoin ETF will bring fresh capital to the crypto space.
Solana will continue to position itself as Ethereum’s primary competitor, attracting significant funding.
Emerging technologies such as RWA, DePin, and SocialFi will compete for market share, and Solana will be the incubation protocol for related applications.
Market forces and increasing miner revenue will force Bitcoin maximalists to accept Ordinals and BRC20.
RWA
SOL
Solana
Ethereum ETF
Decentralized infrastructure
Bitcoin spot ETF
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Further Reading
Next SOL? SEI Sets New Highs, Analysts Offer Nine Hidden Airdrop Strategies
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