Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen released several tweets explaining why he still insists on the bearish analysis published on January 3. He revealed that there was a “failed BTC breakout” signal at that time, which had occurred before the 2022 May 3AC margin liquidation and triggered before the FTX explosion in October 2022.
Contents:
Matrixport Events
Bitcoin Halving Always Drops until March
Better Markets and SEC Chairman in Good Relations
Why did Matrixport suddenly turn bearish?
Bitcoin expected to drop to 36,350
Matrixport Events:
On the evening of January 3, Bitcoin fell from $45,320 to $40,626, and Matrixport’s analysis report was considered one of the reasons for the drop. Matrixport co-founder Wu Jihan responded to this incident multiple times, stating that the drop was unrelated to the analysis report.
Despite the fact that the BTC price did not continue to decline as predicted by the analysis report, analyst Markus Thielen still insists on his opinion. On January 8, he released several tweets on Twitter, as summarized below.
Bitcoin Halving Always Drops until March:
Markus Thielen pointed out that despite the media’s overwhelming promotion of the Bitcoin spot ETF being “about to” pass, the date kept getting delayed until the final deadline of January 10. He previously believed that reasons for disapproval included: the SEC’s five-member voting committee currently being dominated by Democrats, Democrats not liking “cryptocurrency,” and all applications failing to meet a key requirement for SEC approval. From a political perspective, there is no reason to approve a Bitcoin spot ETF and legalize Bitcoin in another form.
Better Markets and SEC Chairman in Good Relations:
The U.S. non-profit organization Better Markets has repeatedly criticized the Bitcoin spot ETF, a view that Markus Thielen also agrees with. He mentioned that in the grayscale case, the judge only believed that the SEC could not adequately explain why futures were issued but denied the spot ETF, but the approval is still up to the SEC. Markus Thielen also pointed out that the CEO of Better Markets had worked closely with SEC Chairman Gensler in the past.
Why did Matrixport suddenly turn bearish?
Markus Thielen revealed that one reason for the sudden release of the bearish analysis on January 3 was the appearance of a “failed BTC breakout” signal. This signal had appeared before the 2022 May 3AC margin liquidation and triggered before the FTX explosion in October 2022.
Bitcoin expected to drop to 36,350:
Markus Thielen emphasized that he always recommends hedging risks through options in the long term, rather than betting on the final decision of the SEC with spot or futures. In addition, looking at the halving cycles in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin usually experiences a false rebound in January, quickly losing upward momentum, resulting in a -14% drop in Bitcoin price in March. It is expected to reach $36,350.
Better Markets
Matrixport
SEC
Bitcoin spot ETF