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Home » Morgan Stanley: Probability of Ethereum Spot ETF Approval in May Below 50%, ETH’s Security Status Must Be Proven First
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Morgan Stanley: Probability of Ethereum Spot ETF Approval in May Below 50%, ETH’s Security Status Must Be Proven First

Jan. 14, 2024No Comments2 Mins Read
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Morgan Stanley: Probability of Ethereum Spot ETF Approval in May Below 50%, ETH's Security Status Must Be Proven First
Morgan Stanley: Probability of Ethereum Spot ETF Approval in May Below 50%, ETH's Security Status Must Be Proven First
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According to a report from The Block, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou stated that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) must first classify ETH as a “non-security” before approving an Ethereum spot ETF. Therefore, he estimates that the probability of approval in May does not exceed 50%.

Table of Contents
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Need to prove that ETH is not a security
SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s recent comments
The SEC approved 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs as expected last week, and the trading volume exceeded $10 billion on the first two days, making the market expect Ethereum spot ETF to be approved in May. VanEck, ARK & 21Shares, and Hashdex all have their approval deadlines in May.

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11 Bitcoin Spot ETFs: Management Fees Expected to Raise $4 Billion on the First Day
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(
Bitcoin Spot ETF: Trading Volume Exceeds $10 Billion in Two Days, Success or Bubble?
)
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Hot Focus on ETH? Analysts Bullish on “Ethereum Spot ETF” Passing in May
)
However, JPMorgan analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou pointed out a key factor: the SEC needs to classify Ethereum as a commodity rather than a security in order to approve an Ethereum spot ETF. Therefore, JPMorgan estimates that the probability of approval in May does not exceed 50%.

Last week, SEC Chairman Gary Gensler was asked about the possibility of an Ethereum spot ETF. Gensler suggested taking a cautious approach. He compared recent Bitcoin ETFs to approved gold and silver trading products, indicating that the current approvals are limited to “non-security commodity-like tokens” of Bitcoin. The committee’s decision to approve a spot Bitcoin ETF “should in no way be seen as a willingness to approve listing standards for crypto asset securities.” He also reiterated that, without prejudging any cryptocurrency, the majority of cryptocurrencies are investment contracts and are therefore subject to federal securities laws.

Gary Gensler
JPMorgan
Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou
Ethereum spot ETF


Further reading
Crazy Updates on Bitcoin Spot ETF, Jane Street, JPMorgan, and others join the AP list
JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon hates cryptocurrencies, but the number of employees in its blockchain division continues to increase.

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