The strong non-farm payroll data was released by the United States on Friday, and US stocks continued to rise, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new historical high. As for the trend of Bitcoin, with the end of the sell-off of GBTC positions by FTX and the gradual slowdown in GBTC fund outflows, the latest report released by Coinbase also believes that the downward pressure on Bitcoin has weakened.
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Strong US Economy, Rate Cut to be Delayed until May
Downward Pressure on Bitcoin Eases, Reaching 43K Again
The report released on Friday by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that non-farm payrolls added 353,000 people in January, far exceeding the market’s expected 187,000, and the unemployment rate was 3.7%, lower than the market’s expected 3.8%. This indicates that the US job market is stronger than expected.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated at the post-meeting press conference on January 31 that a rate cut in March is unlikely, which caused panic selling in the market (blue circle, the S&P 500 index fell 1.61% that day). However, the market regained its bullish confidence on Thursday and Friday, not only recovering the decline on January 31, but also hitting a new historical high for the S&P 500 index.
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Below-expected inflation and better-than-expected employment data have rekindled investors’ optimistic sentiment about the “soft landing” or even “no landing” of the US economy. According to the CME FedWatch Index, the market expects the timing of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve to be delayed until May, with as many as 60% of investors believing that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in March.
The recent trend of Bitcoin is similar to that of US stocks. It briefly fell below 42K on January 31 but then gradually rose. With the end of the sell-off of GBTC positions by FTX and the gradual slowdown in GBTC fund outflows, the latest report released by Coinbase also believes that the downward pressure on Bitcoin has weakened.
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Coinbase analyst: Downward pressure on Bitcoin has weakened, macro factors and halving effects may intensify in April
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Matrixport analyst Markus Thielen also quoted the well-known technical indicator Elliott Wave Theory, pointing out that Bitcoin’s recent pullback from $49,000 to $38,500 constitutes the fourth wave correction, and the fifth wave has already begun. Once it breaks through $43,000, it should establish a new bullish position. He also expects the fifth wave to potentially be completed in the first quarter, with a price target of $52,671.
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Matrixport analyst: Bitcoin ends “fourth wave” and turns bullish, first quarter target at $50,000
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【Full Text of Coinbase Blog】Bitcoin’s Disconnection from “Non-Correlated Assets” may be Temporary