Markus Thielen from 10X Research has released the latest Bitcoin price targets. The current resistance level is at 44K, with a first-quarter target of $50,000 and a year-end target of $70,000.
Bitcoin has been consolidating within a range this year. According to the report, although Bitcoin has seen upward trends for 10 out of its 13 years in existence, the returns in January have been more complex, with only 7 years showing an increase and 6 years showing a downward trend.
Bitcoin has rebounded to slightly below the 42,800 level, which was indicated by the trend channel from November to January. The 43,000-44,000 range is a resistance zone, but Thielen expects Bitcoin to break through and reclaim the $50,000 level by the end of this quarter.
Based on CoinDesk’s report, Markus Thielen believes that with macroeconomic conditions, supportive monetary policies (indicating an upcoming interest rate cut cycle), the US election cycle, and increasing demand from traditional financial investors for Bitcoin ETFs, a rebound to $70,000 seems possible.
Although the Federal Reserve may have delayed the first interest rate cut until May or June, inflation is decreasing while economic growth is being maintained. Additionally, the US presidential election cycle coincides with the Bitcoin halving year, which historically has shown an upward trend:
– In 2012, Bitcoin rose by 152%
– In 2016, Bitcoin rose by 121%
– In 2020, Bitcoin rose by 302%
The average increase over these three cycles is 192%.
Current price predictions for Bitcoin by various institutions are as follows:
– Bloomberg (Mike McGlone): $100,000 by 2026
– Bernstein (Gautam Chhugani): $150,000 by 2025
– BitQuant: $80,000 – $250,000 by the end of 2024
– ARK Invest: $600,000 – $1,500,000 by 2030
According to CoinGecko’s market price predictions, the consensus average price for Bitcoin after the halving is $87,000.
Considering this, Markus Thielen’s target price of $70,000 may be conservative. Thielen explains that although higher target prices can be considered based on data analysis, $70,000 is the most realistic target as a broader bull market theme has not yet been observed.