Interview with Markus Thielen, a popular analyst in recent times. He is the Chief Analyst at Matrixport and also founded 10X Research. He has played a role in accurately predicting the fluctuations and surges of Bitcoin. With Bitcoin having risen 44% last month and currently reaching the milestone of $60,000, how does he view the future market?
Looking back at accurate predictions:
(Matrixport event summary | Wu Jihan’s tweets clarify: Matrixport does not bear the responsibility for the sharp decline)
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(Matrixport analyst: Bitcoin’s “fourth wave” ends and turns bullish, expected to reach $50,000 in the first quarter)
(10X Research: Winning secrets of Bitcoin during Chinese New Year, with a success rate of 90% and a return rate of up to 10%)
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Bull market is only halfway through
Estimated Bitcoin price could reach $125,000
ETF is the reason for the sharp rise in Bitcoin
This bull market is the Bitcoin bull market
Markus analyzed the halving of Bitcoin and its price over the years (see the chart below). In October 2022, it is at the bottom of the cycle. His viewpoint is to buy Bitcoin 14 to 15 months before the halving, rather than entering the market after the halving. The chart shows:
We are still halfway through the bull market, and the market can continue until February or September next year.
The past three US presidential elections coincided with the halving cycle of Bitcoin. In the elections of 2012, 2016, and 2020, the average annual return rate of Bitcoin was 192%. With Bitcoin’s price at $40,000 at the beginning of this year, if we calculate a 192% increase, Bitcoin is expected to reach $125,000 by the end of the year.
In July of last year, 10X Research also observed another indicator: “When Bitcoin sets a new high within a year, there will be a 300% rebound.” This data also leads to the figure of $125,000.
ETF represents the institutionalization of Bitcoin. Many asset management companies in the United States are using ETFs for their asset allocation decisions, and they have trillions of dollars of funds. The entry of funds of this magnitude has a significant impact on Bitcoin, which is why we are seeing the sharp rise in Bitcoin at the moment.
Based on this reason, Markus believes that this bull market is very different. The previous bull market was the DeFi summer, with altcoins as the main focus. However, this time it is more or less concentrated on Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s current dominance is around 52%, and if there is a rebound in altcoins, Bitcoin’s dominance will drop below 50%. Moreover, Markus has not yet seen the narrative of altcoins.
BTC
Markus Thielen
Further reading:
Bitcoin RSI breaks 80, historical data shows a 50% average increase in 60 days, could reach $74,600 before halving?
Bitcoin breaks $44,000, Chinese New Year market starts, pay attention to the evil fifth wave.