Why did holders not sell off GBTC on the first day of the Bitcoin ETF listing? Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that the selling pressure (net outflow) of GBTC may be related to the scale of bankruptcies.
Bitcoin ETF has seen four consecutive days of net outflows. Data shows that the net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF on March 21 decreased to -$94 million, with GBTC contributing -$358 million.
The net outflows for the first three days were -$154 million, -$326 million, and -$261 million, respectively.
Among them, BlackRock IBIT’s net inflows were much higher than the previous two days, which is the main reason for the reduction in net outflows today.
The ETF data from various institutions are as follows (from high to low):
Grayscale GBTC: -$358 million
BlackRock IBIT: $233 million
Bitwise BITB: $12 million
Valkyrie BRRR: $4.7 million
Invesco BTCO: $4.2 million
Franklin EZBC: $3.8 million
Fidelity FBTC: $2.9 million
ARK Invest ARKB: $2 million
Vaneck HODL: $1.8 million
Grayscale GBTC’s selling pressure has been continuous. Previously, GBTC was a closed-end fund, and investors had to go through a two-year lock-up period after purchase before redeeming. This has led to a huge selling pressure on GBTC after its transformation into an ETF.
However, although GBTC experienced net outflows on the first day of the Bitcoin ETF listing on January 11, these were not one-time sell-offs but progressive outflows. GBTC has never had any net inflows to date.
Why did holders not immediately sell off GBTC on the first day of the Bitcoin ETF listing? Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that the selling pressure (net outflow) of GBTC may be related to the scale of bankruptcies.
Eric Balchunas also pointed out that the scale of GBTC net outflows in February was small and random, which resembled retail behavior. On the other hand, the significant outflows seemed to be liquidations of GBTC by bankrupt institutions such as Genesis.
However, Eric Balchunas believes that even if there is selling pressure on GBTC, the market still maintains a certain level. This suggests that the worst-case scenario may be coming to an end, and any net outflows from GBTC may also be converted into BTC spot.
He expects that the net outflows of GBTC will soon come from sporadic retail investors, and the outflow situation will be similar to that of February.
GBTC’s daily net outflows:
GBTC
Bitcoin
Bitcoin ETF
Grayscale
Further reading:
SEC Delays VanEck Ethereum Spot ETF Again, Grayscale ETHE Discount Expands to 20%
MicroStrategy Adds $600 Million to Bitcoin, Holding Accounts for 1% of Total Circulation