If China does not invade Taiwan by 2024, bettors who bet against it will receive a return of nearly 9%. Although this may not be very impressive in the highly volatile cryptocurrency market, CoinDesk considers it a far better trade than investing in Taiwan bonds, which have a yield slightly above 1.26% for a two-year term.
Creative Prediction: Polymarket Forecasts 9% Chance of China's Attack on Taiwan, Investors Bet on Higher Profits than Bonds