According to the Bitfinex Alpha report released on April 15th, analysts have pointed out that the outflow of Bitcoin from the exchange has reached its highest point since January 2023. At the same time, the amount of Bitcoin that has not been moved for over a year continues to decrease.
Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Decline, Similar to Pre-Rise in 2020
Bitfinex analysts have pointed out that as the Bitcoin halving approaches, a large amount of Bitcoin is flowing out of centralized exchanges, and the non-active circulating supply (Bitcoin that has not been moved for over a year) has reached an 18-month low.
The report mentioned:
The decline in Bitcoin long-term holders is similar to the behavior before the rise in 2020, indicating that the market may be entering a similar growth phase.
Similar to the second red arrow
Bitcoin Cycle High or to Appear After Six Months
In the past month, long-term holders have been actively selling their Bitcoin at a rate of approximately 16,800 BTC per day.
Analysts said:
Based on previous cycles, this trend usually lasts for about seven months and is often a precursor to a market downturn, indicating that we may be six months away from the historical high of Bitcoin in this cycle.
However, analysts also reminded that Bitcoin had already reached a historical high before the halving event in this cycle, so this cycle will be different from previous ones and will be shorter and more intense.
After experiencing several days of decline, existing indicators including funding rates suggest that market attention has shifted back to Bitcoin halving.
Bitfinex analysts believe that the outflow of Bitcoin from exchanges can also be seen as investors transferring Bitcoin to cold wallets, waiting for potential gains after the halving.
According to the analyst’s claim of a “similar trend to the rise in December 2020,” Bitcoin experienced a maximum decline of about -11% in December, dropping from $19,913 to $17,565, and rose to $41,950 (138%) in January, with a pullback of only two weeks.
Currently, the largest drawdown of Bitcoin is close to 20% (-18.68%), and it has been consolidating for a month.
BTC/USDT daily chart|OKX
Bitfinex
Bitcoin
Further reading:
Bitfinex to raise over six million dollars in tokenized securities to create a new facade for the Salvadoran International Airport
Bitfinex suspends trading without warning, team: due to abnormal performance maintenance.