The Rise of Bitcoin: 10x Research Reveals Macro Factors as Catalyst, Halving and ETF Not Necessarily Bullish

10x Research analyst Markus Thielen stated that the current cryptocurrency market is dominated by selling pressure, and it is almost certain that prices will decline in the short term.
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Bitcoin ETF Flow Continues to Decline
Unfavorable Macro Factors
Bitcoin Halving is not a Bullish Event
Bitcoin ETF Flow Continues to Decline
Markus Thielen stated in a podcast on CoinDesk that there is currently no catalyst that can push prices higher again:
“We no longer have the upward momentum to push the price from $40,000 to $70,000. The main reason is the lack of new funds flowing into Bitcoin ETFs in the past few weeks. Investors seem to have lost interest after the initial excitement, and traditional financial investors seem to be less interested as well.”
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Previously, Markus Thiele continued to be bullish during the decline in ETF flows and believed that stablecoins were the true indicator of fund inflows.
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10x Research: Stablecoin inflows replace ETFs as the driving force for price increase; ENA targets $5
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Unfavorable Macro Factors
Markus Thielen emphasized that the macro environment is the main driving force behind price increases. From the end of last year to early 2024, traders believed that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates multiple times this year, which helped boost the prices of risk assets such as technology stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Markus Thielen:
“The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs did not suddenly stop, but it stopped on March 12th when the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index were announced.”
He cited inflation reports and other data from March, pointing out that inflation is still far above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, leading to the Federal Reserve expressing uncertainty about whether it will cut interest rates.
Bitcoin Halving is not a Bullish Event
Bitcoin halving often brings about a bull market, but Markus Thielen still believes that it is macro factors, rather than halving itself, that bring about the bull market:
“The upward trend is mainly due to the positive macro environment, not the halving itself. For example, the last halving occurred in May 2020, accompanied by massive fiscal stimulus measures related to the COVID-19 pandemic (interest rate cuts, money printing). I hardly attribute any price increase to the halving.”
He expects the market to enter a consolidation period lasting several weeks, and Bitcoin may drop to $50,000 and rebound before the end of the year.
10x Research
Markus Thielen
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Further Reading
10x Research: Stablecoin inflows replace ETFs as the driving force for price increase; ENA targets $5
Markus Thielen: Bitcoin bull market is only halfway through, targeting $125K